222 replies to this topic

[weatherbe]

Hi Bill, actually you ask a very good question about the drought scenario. I am about to post my long range forecast for the winter. I recently put out phase 1 in an article in the Estes Park Trail Gazette about a month ago. I usually re-analyze the trends once a month for the 90 day outlook. RMNP and the town are so different in weather patterns and snowfall amounts that there is a major demarcation between the two when I put out the long range forecast. I can't answer you just yet, but I will soon. I will post it on my site, but you can be sure I'll give everyone a heads-up on this site when it's been posted.

Take care,
Weather

W - Just curious. What's the long range outlook for RMNP this winter?
Was last year wetter than usual or more the norm? I know they had 5-6 years of dry seasons, but maybe that was an aberration.

Bill

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[weatherbe]

Hi all, those of you who are going to be in Estes this week or just curious about the week ahead, it looks like a typical fall pattern in Estes with a minor system affecting Estes today and another one coming through on Wednesday. Neither of which will be bring a huge change to town. Above 8,500 feet, several inches of snow could fall with the system in the higher elevations of RMNP with the next system Wednesday into Thursday. All and all, the weather pattern this week should allow for some great hiking around town.

Check out http://www.esteslive.com for more details on the week ahead.

Take care,
Weather

Edited by weatherbe, 13 October 2004 - 10:42 AM.

[weatherbe]

Hi all, for those of you interested, rain and snow is falling in and around Estes Park, with several inches of snow possible above 8000-8500 feet.

Be sure and check out http://www.esteslive.com for more details.

Take care,

Weather

[Malok]

Now Greg, I thought it was a weatherman's job to Predict weather. I had been watching your forcast stating that it would be nice hiking weather this week and instead a woke up this morning to a beautiful 4" cover of snow! I was completely taken by surprise. :D

[lovethemtns]

Get out that shovel Erik. Is the snow there light?? You always here about the Colorado powder snow. Usually in Michigan it is wet and heavy. I'm so happy if it is light and fluffy. My husband won't get a snowblower. Says the exercise is good for us. He is right of course. But then again, he goes off to work and I stay home to shovel, unless it is his day off.

[weatherbe]

I couldn't help but laugh at your post Eric. I actually have been predicting this system all week for Wednesday (today), and it came in overnight or officially after midnight. I was predicting scattered showers, possibly rain and snow in town, and possibly several inches of snow above 8,500-9000 feet. I did emphasize this was not a major storm for the mountains, and 4 inches qualifies as a dusting by mountain standards so not major by any stretch. I am wondering when you last checked my site. I actually began calling for this storm as much as 6 days ago, calling it a potential mid-week storm. I just didn't overemphasize it because it was quite weak by Colorado mountain standards. It turned out to be a quick-hitter and is actually out of here. It was rather strange how it picked up steam and made it to the front range about 6 to 7 hours ahead of time. I hate when that happens, and I am not around to move the time up in the day. I was on a TV shoot in Canada and returned home about 10PM Tuesday night, and at that point immediately updated my site to bring the system in during early morning hours.

PS: No need to apologize for being wrong -- I accept yours --



Happy snowing!!!

Weather

[slowpoke]

I'll atest to that. He's been predicting this storm at least since late last week. Hi all, first post here. I've been keeping an eye on estes-live.com because I plan on completing a weekend backcountry trip this weekend. How DOES that weather look?!?

[Aaron]

Awesome slowpoke...hope all goes well so you can bring back a trip report and pictures!

Have a good time out there!

--Aaron

[Malok]

Well Greg, I guess I wasn't paying enough attention. I appologize! I should actually understand what I am reading. (Maybe that is the problem I am having with my studies?) Perhaps you could just have e-mails with flashing letters and music automatically sent to my box every time it is going to rain or snow. :D (Or when there will be clouds on the horizon blocking sunrise, or beautiful light for an early shoot at Chasm Lake or, the right cloud position for capturing the Little Matterhorn, or....... I'm not asking too much am I?

[weatherbe]

Hi there Slowpoke. Welcome to the best darn listserve you'll ever belong to. The folks are fantastic here. And thanks for the backing on my forecast for this storm. I have actually received 10 personal emails from folks who also saw me predicting this storm sytem from last week. It's nice to see that many people paying so close attention to my site. As for your backcountry outing this weekend, I am just now starting to put together a new forecast for the weekend outlook. I have to head to the TV station for a few hours, and then the update will be complete after I go over the computer models when I get back home. For now though, check my site. I will stand by that weekend outlook until the new update arrives. I don't think at this point.

Welcome aboard!!

Weather

[weatherbe]

Slowpoke, the weekend is looking great at this point. If the next system moving down on Friday remains on track, the timing looks really great for a beautiful fall weekend in Estes and RMNP. Keep checking http://www.esteslive.com for more updates on Friday's system and the weekend outlook. I'll also post another update on this site Thursday and again on Friday.


Take care,

Weather

[slowpoke]

Great! Thanks weatherbe! I'm heading out to Denver this afternoon, soon as I get off work!

[weatherbe]

That's OK Malok. I totally understand, and I didn't take it personally. I just figured you had not checked my site for a few days. As for your request, sure why not!! Now let's talk about dollars --

By the way, I am going to be adding sunrise/sunset times to my revamped site. Let me know if you have any other suggestions.

Take care,
Weather

Well Greg, I guess I wasn't paying enough attention.   I appologize! I should actually understand what I am reading. (Maybe that is the problem I am having with my studies?) Perhaps you could just have e-mails with flashing letters and music automatically sent to my box every time it is going to rain or snow. :D (Or when there will be clouds on the horizon blocking sunrise, or beautiful light for an early shoot at Chasm Lake or, the right cloud position for capturing the Little Matterhorn,  or....... I'm not asking too much am I? 

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[weatherbe]

It's my pleasure Slowpoke. Glad I can help out. I wish you great hiking!!! So far no change in my forecast for the weekend. I don't know if you will be able to check out updates before you go or after you get there, but in case you can, be sure and check out http://www.esteslive.com in case there are any changes for the weekend.

By the way, you said you are headed to Denver this afternoon. Where are you coming from?

Happy "Trails"!! :D

Take care,
Weather

[weatherbe]

Hi all, you will not find this info on my site yet, but I wanted to put out some weather news to this list, as far as the next 3 days go. I am waiting for confirmation through computer models, but I have enough info to start laying the groundwork for Friday through Sunday. The storm system dropping down out of Canada, rather weak in nature, looks like it may bypass Colorado altogether on Friday. What we will get stuck with is a whole lot of wind. This windy scenario can kick up some higher elevation snow shower activity, but it won't be due to an organized storm system. This means the snow squalls will be spotty, with some higher areas getting a few inches of snow and some getting zilche. This pattern by the way is called orographic snows. It's when the favorable winds lift up along areas of the mountain slopes, and this lift creates moisture at the higher elevations and thus snow. As for town, the weather word will be wind for Friday and Saturday. The higher wind gusts could push a few showers out over town, but in reality, the precip will actually be falling in the mountains. These will then be wind-blown showers. Some wind gusts could reach 60 plus miles an hour and possibly even higher in some of the higher areas. So hopefully Slowpoke will read this before he ventures out in the high country. This is the problem with storm systems this time of year. They can change direction very quickly and change a 24 hour forecast just as fast. Back when I was in the media in CO, I would put out a small dog warning. Another words, tie up your small dogs in Estes, or they may end up east of Longmont. By the way, I am already getting reports of very high wind gusts in the higher elevations and winds increasing in town.

More updates to come.

Take care,
Weather