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A 40% Chance of Thunderstorms?


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#1 HighPlainsMedic

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Posted 18 July 2011 - 02:24 PM

Asked and received an ok from the BOSS to take a little trip to the Park, with these instructions.. "Don't you dare hurt yourself, You will be in trouble if I have to do the family reunion weekend by myself, and GOD FORBID you can't go to AK August 3rd" So with those kind words i started to plan and pack.. Posted the itinerary and Ed asked if he could accompany.. It's always better to hike in pairs than alone.. so I Said sure.. Knowing that rain was and has been in the forecast on the divide.. we set a time to meet and head up.. To be at the trail head at 6:30 means a wake up at 2 am, and a key turn at 2:30.. Pretty good timing, Ed and I were within 10 minutes of being there at the same time.. not bad..

Flattop is one of my favorites, because you get above treeline quickly, it gets the body warmed up quickly and has enough steepness to get a good workout.

Dream Lake overlook was buried this last winter, but this is always a good photo,
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As is the Emerald Lake Overlook
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Longs Peak shows the shadows of things to come
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a comparison of the Hitching post right before the final push to the summit
July 17 2011
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May 7, 2011
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Looking North from the summit, Ptarmigan point..
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Looking South East. ohhh ohhh
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Cont

Edited by HighPlainsMedic, 18 July 2011 - 02:35 PM.


#2 HighPlainsMedic

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Posted 18 July 2011 - 02:32 PM

Snow Drift Peak to the Northwest of the Summit
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We got to the top of Ptarmigan Point and started snapping pictures.. Here is one of Hallet, with Flattop just to the left
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Pesky clouds and lightning.. shucks.
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well it was time to bug out.. "here's your sign"
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A good day on the divide.. we kibitzed alot.. didn't make the Spragues pass or Peak, but a day in Rocky even with rain, always ranks high on a good day scale..
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Next week, it's Family reunion, Barb Birthday, Grandparents day, Grand kids day, we shall be tour guides to the novices in our family

Edited by HighPlainsMedic, 18 July 2011 - 02:33 PM.


#3 renate1

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Posted 18 July 2011 - 03:26 PM

Very cool. Neat to see the difference at the hitching post.

#4 Becky J.

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Posted 18 July 2011 - 03:31 PM

I will only get to see those views from your camera.
Great pics.

Becky J.

#5 DrCloud

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Posted 18 July 2011 - 04:09 PM

If I remember correctly, a "40% chance of precipitation", in Weather Service - speak, means this: On four days out of ten in which this forecast is made, there will be rain somewhere in the forecast region (over the time period of the forecast).

"Somewhere" is not well defined, because the area in the forecast region that gets the rain (4 out of 10 times) will depend on the character of the event. Small-cloud showers produce less area coverage than thunderstorms; and those produce rain over smaller areas than, say, an upslope event.

Also, "how much" rain isn't well defined, either, although forecasts sometimes talk about heavy rain and so on.

In the summer over the Front Range, of course, it'll mostly be thunderstorms, and the area coverage will be spotty and on the scale of square kilometers or maybe tens (rather than hundreds) of them.

All of this is less important than the vexing issue of lightning. And the way to deal with that is to get the hell out of Dodge if you feel like you should. Generally speaking, the stormlets grow over the Divide and then move off toward the east; if they're already east of you, maybe it'll be OK.

"Maybe", though, is pretty subjective, so re-read the second sentence of this paragraph and consider your options. HPH

#6 John

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Posted 18 July 2011 - 08:45 PM

Loved the "before and after" comparison of the amount of snow. WOW.

#7 Igloo Ed

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Posted 18 July 2011 - 09:58 PM

View PostHighPlainsMedic, on 18 July 2011 - 02:24 PM, said:

Pretty good timing, Ed and I were within 10 minutes of being there at the same time.. not bad..
I like how you have that down... it's pretty much a no brainer for me figuring no more than one hour to get to the trailhead.
I was amazed at the size of the bergshrund on Ptarmigan Glacier:
Bergshrund.jpg

I loved the view of Hallett with the peaks of Glacier Gorge looming behind them:
Hallett.jpg

And the last time I saw Bighorn Flats was over 20 years ago, it was good to see and get a picture of:
BighornFlats.jpg

Love how Mt. Ida is just peeking up in that picture.
A great trip Jeff, hope for better weather the next time and to go further.

#8 HighPlainsMedic

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Posted 19 July 2011 - 06:13 AM

View PostIgloo Ed, on 18 July 2011 - 09:58 PM, said:


A great trip Jeff, hope for better weather the next time and to go further.

Yessir, this week, it would be nice to pitch a tent at or around 12K, too darn hot out here in the prairie; I look back at that cool rain and miss it now while we languish in oppressive heat..

and this week too much rubber on the pavement for meetings..

#9 reeves

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Posted 19 July 2011 - 07:05 AM

Great pics. It is so much better than the weather we have here. 100 with humidity. I am so not a hot weather person.

#10 cardinal

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Posted 19 July 2011 - 11:10 AM

Agree Reeves - I know it can get hot in plains but.... I'll take that heat over the 96 degree with 80% humidity which gets you to a "feels like" 110 degree day which is what we are enjoying this week. It is opporssive here. Fortunately I will be enjoying a week in RMNP starting this Sat afternoon.

#11 mwilson

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Posted 19 July 2011 - 11:39 AM

Cardinal, if you want to meet up with some nice forum people, we are having a get together at Hidden Valley on Thursday, July 28th at 6:00. Bring your own food and enjoy the company of some fellow park lovers. We're heading out Saturday and arriving Sunday. It will be so nice to get out of this heat for awhile.

#12 Mark Zemmin

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Posted 19 July 2011 - 07:18 PM

Great report and pictures. The before and after are crazy cool.




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