40 replies to this topic

[SAFX]

Well, the day is almost here. I will be traveling out to Coloroda this Friday (7/25) for a week long hiking vacation in RMNP. I've been checking the weather in Estes Park on a weekly basis for the past month and found that thunderstorms are the normal forecast. What exactly does that mean? Are these scattered thunderstorms throughout the day, or are they constant? I hope they are not constant as that would likely ruin my hiking plans.

Thanks
SAF

[junkie]

It is summer..... it will likely storm almost every afternoon for at least a bit. I wouldn't panic about it, most of your day on most days will likely be nice.

[bpv_UW]

It is summer..... it will likely storm almost every afternoon for at least a bit. I wouldn't panic about it, most of your day on most days will likely be nice.

As junkie said, PM storms are the norm. In my experience, these typically move in around 1-2pm and can last anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. The times can obviously vary, though. Typically it is clear again by evening, and mornings are usually clear and nice. Don't worry about it, just hike early and don't plan to be above treeline exposed during the stormy times of day. You'll have a great time.

-Brandon

[SandyP]

Have an awesome time! I'm really excited for you! The earlier you can get out on the trails, the more you will enjoy it anyway :)

And of course. . .don't forget to take pictures and post them when you get back :)

[Mr. Jinks]

It just the way it is, SAFX. It has something to do with summer meteorological phenomena or the gods. I do know it's why we hit the trail at the crack of dawn. Once below treeline headed back to the trailhead, the afternoon thunderstorm is enjoyable.

[SandyP]

. . .Once below treeline headed back to the trailhead, the afternoon thunderstorm is enjoyable.

AGREED! There is something so majestic about the sound of thunder echoing off the mountains as you hike. We actually think it is a treat when we get to experience that. It has a "voice of God" feel to it :)

[SAFX]

As junkie said, PM storms are the norm. In my experience, these typically move in around 1-2pm and can last anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. The times can obviously vary, though. Typically it is clear again by evening, and mornings are usually clear and nice. Don't worry about it, just hike early and don't plan to be above treeline exposed during the stormy times of day. You'll have a great time.

-Brandon

Ok, so what should I do if I get caught above the treeline during a thunder storm? Also, what do you mean by treeline?

SAFX

[SandyP]

Ummmmm. . . .just don't get caught above treeline. You will be able to tell as you climb to higher elevations. You can watch the sky and almost see the thunder clouds rolling in. If it starts looking like the dark thunderclouds are approaching, turn around and try another day. Treeline is that point as you climb higer and higher that trees can't grow, so you won't see trees anymore, but rather, you will see tundra and the rugged rocky mountain peaks. As you look at the peaks at a distance, you can see exactly when the trees stop and the tops of the peaks are rocky tundra.

But do be careful to watch the clouds and don't risk being above treeline and getting caught. It did happen to us once on a summit. The storm came so quickly! The clouds weren't quite as "telling" that day, and we were so close to the summit. But when it started lightning, thundering and raining, we were scared to death, and wished like heck we were not the highest point on that mountain. God smiled on us and we made it back okay, but you hear all too often that some people do not.

[Mr. Jinks]

Ok, so what should I do if I get caught above the treeline during a thunder storm? Also, what do you mean by treeline?

SAFX

1. Head down.

2. Where the trees are. Above, oh, I don't know, say, 10,500 ft., the trees don't grow.

If you are actually in peril with lightning strikes nearby you should crouch low to the ground (not sitting), avoiding steams, standing water and lone trees; i.e. make yourself a small target while avoiding that which conducts electricity.

Edited by Mr. Jinks, 21 July 2008 - 11:25 AM.

[Igloo Ed]

1. Head down.

Run away, run away....

[weatherbe]

Yes I do agree somewhat about the PM storm analysis, but this time of year, the monsoons can demolish that theory. The ever present southerly flow from Mexico and up through New Mexico and Arizona know no AM/PM clock. When that moisture decides to invade our part of the state, we can be deluged at 8AM as well as 3PM. The more telling thing to note is when we dealing with afternoon and evening induced storms thanks to a target temperature plus the target humidity plus the target dew point or the good old fashion monsoon moisture. As a meteorologist and weather analyst, I know when we are in one pattern or the other. The lay person does not and definitely must pay close attention to weather patterns from the forecast for the day and week. Today is an example of a bit of monsoon moisture but more importantly heat build up much earlier than normal plus higher humidity. As of two hours ago 10:25AM there were no clouds ... 2 hours later huge clouds are building over Estes. If the monsoons were in full flow, we would have storms at mid morning. This week is going to be very interesting because the computer models are showing that fierce flow from Mexico trying to make it into the northern part of the CO. If this continues, this week we'll get some good rains and heavy storms. Hope this information helps.

Take care,
Greg
Estes Park and Front Range Weather Anslyst

As junkie said, PM storms are the norm. In my experience, these typically move in around 1-2pm and can last anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. The times can obviously vary, though. Typically it is clear again by evening, and mornings are usually clear and nice. Don't worry about it, just hike early and don't plan to be above treeline exposed during the stormy times of day. You'll have a great time.

-Brandon

[bikehikefish]

Hope I'm not hijacking this thread, but what do you all think about backpacking and camping above the treeline? I'm going to be camping at 11,100 and 11,500 in Indian Peaks next week. And look at these nuts!!!

http://forums.backpacker.com/cgi-bin/forum...19;t=9991106668

[Jo]

If this continues, this week we'll get some good rains and heavy storms.
Take care,
Greg
Estes Park and Front Range Weather Anslyst

I hope so. It seems like we haven't had that much rain at all this summer. I like a good downpour (must be my British blood).

[Lsmith]

I have to agree with Jo, the thunderstorms just started. We have had long sunny days until this last week. It's incredibly dry, but it's clouding over as we speak.
Lori

[mirak]

A couple of things about weather:

First, go here for the best forecast. Click on the map where RMNP is located and you'll get a very specific forecast. Weather.com is pretty much worthless.

Second, 30% chance of rain doesn't mean there's a 30% chance it will rain. It means that 30% of the forecast area is likely to get rain. In the mountains, it is totally hit or miss which areas will receive rain.

My forecast for last week projected partly to mostly cloudy all week, with 20 - 60% rain. We had crystal clear mornings all days but one, and that same day was the only day we got rain.

So, don't worry too much about the weather forecast. Most of the projected t-storms will be spotty and will occur in the afternoon. Start your hikes early and you should have no problem.